Global Growth Outlook
The global economy is drifting sideways. Real growth this year is likely to draw level with last year’s figure at around three percent. Latin America and the CIS countries are experiencing regional recessions, while growth in sub-Saharan Africa is weak.
Industrial production, global trade and global FDI are all set to increase very little this year. Industrial production is unlikely to recover from its low level this year (2015: 1.9 percent), and is on track to underperform economic output. Global trade could grow by as much as three percent in terms of volume. Foreign direct investment in 2015 was driven by acquisitions, displaying little signs of a shift towards real investments in new capacities.
The financial risks to the global economy have increased substantially in the last two years. Global financial stability is especially at risk from heavily indebted companies in emerging economies. The drastic expansion and sustained stimulation of lending in China over the last few years harbours considerable mid-term financial risks and is endangering the chances of a successful structural transformation of the Chinese economy.