European Growth Outlook 10/2018

Euphoria turns to disillusionment. Europe's economy passes its cyclical peak

The EU economy is expected to grow by slightly over two percent this year. Following growth of 2.4 percent last year, the economy has passed its peak. Private consumption and investment remain the primary drivers of growth. The trade disputes are now reflected in the hard figures. The contribution of net exports to GDP growth has been decreasing for several quarters. In the second quarter it turned negative, reaching minus 0.3 percent, half a percentage point lower than in the preceding quarters.