Global Growth Outlook 09/2019

Shock treatment. US protectionism and Brexit increasing risk of recession

Global trade is likely to grow only marginally above the previous year’s level. Global economic growth will drop down to only three percent this year, the weakest growth seen since 2002. The risk of further upheavals to the world economy remain very high. The trade disputes between the United States and China and the EU are already significantly hampering investment activity and foreign trade. The risk of a disorderly Brexit is an additional source of strain.