Economic recovery from the pandemic has been put on hold by the Russian invasion. The BDI had forecast a 3.5 percent rise in GDP at the start of the year. A return to pre-Covid growth levels is not expected before the end of the year at the earliest. Real economic output will only increase by around 1.5 percent this year. Foreign trade pulling down growth: We predict exports of goods and services to expand by 2.5 percent in real terms. Imports are set to pull ahead and grow 4.5 percent, bolstered by high energy and commodity prices and the pick-up in foreign travel.